With sales down, total active listing rose nearly 31 per cent to 33,500 units in November, compared to the same month last year. This said, active listings for the month of November 2017 were at their lowest level in more than 15 years. (Pixabay.com)

With sales down, total active listing rose nearly 31 per cent to 33,500 units in November, compared to the same month last year. This said, active listings for the month of November 2017 were at their lowest level in more than 15 years. (Pixabay.com)

B.C. real estate body warns of ‘cracks’ in Canadian economy in 2019

British Columbia Real Estate Association predicts Bank of Canada won’t meet interest goals

The body representing the provincial real estate industry warns of “cracks” in the Canadian economy.

Cameron Muir, chief economist of the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), made that observation in the organization’s mortgage rate forecast for December 2018.

RELATED: Victoria in Canada’s top three cities for highest household debt

“The most recent quarter of Canadian GDP data was, on the surface, relatively strong, showing that the economy expanded at a 2 per cent annual rate,” he said. “However, the underlying data was far less encouraging. Household spending slowed, residential investment fell 1.5 per cent and business investment also declined following six consecutive quarterly increases.”

The report sounds especially concerned about the state of the Alberta’s oil industry. A lack of pipeline capacity has prompted a build-up of inventory, causing prices of Western Canada Select oil to drop.

The “deep discount” for Western Canada Select oil is one of the reasons why BCREA appears “skeptical” that the Bank of Canada will succeed in raising its interest rate — which sets the rate for all other interest rates — to a ‘neutral’ level of three per cent over the medium term.

“However, other cracks in the economy are starting to appear as well, including the highly publicized closing to GM’s Oshawa plant, which will have a material impact on growth in Ontario,” said Muir. “Those factors, along with a slowing housing market across Canada and a potentially sharp slowdown in US economic growth next year, may give the Bank pause.”

The Bank of Canada, in other words, may refrain from measures that could further stall an economy that appears to be slowing down anyway.

RELATED: ‘Subdued’ housing market predicted in B.C. through 2021: report

Looking at provincial figures for November, they confirm the slowing house market. According to the BCREA, November 2018 sales dropped 33.1 per cent cent from the same month last year to 5,179 units sold, with sales volume declining 34.3 per cent to $3.7 billion.

With sales down, total active listing rose nearly 31 per cent to 33,500 units in November, compared to the same month last year. This said, active listings for the month of November 2017 were at their lowest level in more than 15 years.

Notably, prices barely budged, dropping 1.9 per cent to an average of $718,903.

“BC households continue to struggle with the sharp decline in purchasing power caused by the B20 mortgage stress test,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Most BC regions are now exhibiting relative balance between supply and demand.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 23.1 per cent to $53.4 billion, compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales declined 23.6 per cent to 74,847 units, while the average residential price was up 0.7 per cent to $713,302.


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

wolfgang.depner@saanichnews.com

Just Posted

BC Housing has purchased the former Travelodge Hotel on Yale Road in Chilliwack, pictured here on May 18, 2021, to house people experiencing homelessness. (Paul Henderson/ Chilliwack Progress)
BC Housing purchases Chilliwack hotel to house homeless moved from downtown shelter

44 rooms at former Travelodge were being rented for over a year to house vulnerable amid pandemic

Chilliwack’s Sierra Bergen is one of 25 girls chosen to join the full-time Vancouver Whitecaps women’s REX (Regional Excel) program. (Submitted photo)
Chilliwack soccer standout Sierra Bergen selected for Whitecaps REX program

Only 25 players from Western Canada born between 2004 and 2006 were chosen for the full-time program

Thirteen-year-old Allison Hickman was last seen in Chilliwack May 14. (RCMP photo)
RCMP say missing Surrey teenager was last seen in Chilliwack

Allison Hickman was last seen in the downtown Chilliwack area on May 14

The Portal homeless shelter on Yale Road in downtown Chilliwack on April 7, 2021. (Paul Henderson/ Chilliwack Progress file)
The Portal’s days are numbered in downtown Chilliwack

Homeless Shelter that faced opposition by neighbours closing its doors even earlier than expected

Chilliwack mom Brianna Jervis was greeted by her children, Kenzie and Wilson, after she completed a 10-kilometre run to help raise money for the maternity department at Chilliwack General Hospital through the annual Run for Mom event. (Submitted)
Run for Mom brings in thousands of dollars for Chilliwack maternity department

Fundraising continues with raffle to raise money for maternity equipment at CGH

A prowling coyote proved no match for a stray black cat who chased it out of a Port Moody parking lot Friday, May 14. (Twitter/Screen grab)
VIDEO: Cat who chases away coyote asked to join Port Moody, Vancouver police 

Caught on camera Friday, the black cat jumps out from under a parked car and runs the wild animal out of a vacant lot

The Combined Forces Special Enforcement Unit released a poster Tuesday, May 18 featuring the names and photos of more suspects involved in the Lower Mainland gang conflict.
Police issue warning for 8 more men involved in Lower Mainland gang conflict

B.C.’s gang task force says it’s expecting ‘violence to continue and escalate’

A restaurant server on White Rock’s Marine Drive serves customers on a roadside patio. Indoor dining and recreational travel bans have been in effect since late March in B.C. (Peace Arch News)
B.C.’s COVID-19 infection rate falls to 411 cases Tuesday

360 people in hospital, up slightly, two more deaths

The Banff National Park entrance is shown in Banff, Alta., Tuesday, March 24, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
Minister asks Canadians to camp carefully in national parks as season starts

Kitchen shelters in Banff National Park closed, trails on Vancouver Island will only be one-way

Cannabis bought in British Columbia (Ashley Wadhwani/Black Press Media)
Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

Names of those aboard the ship are seen at Komagata Maru monument in downtown Vancouver, on Tuesday, May 18, 2021. The City of Vancouver has issued an apology for its racist role in denying entry to 376 passengers aboard a ship that was forced to return to India over a century ago. Mayor Kennedy Stewart says discrimination by the city had “cruel effects” on the Sikhs, Hindus and Muslims aboard the Komagata Maru, which arrived in Burrard Inlet on May 23, 1914. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
Vancouver mayor says sorry for city’s role in turning away South Asians in 1914

Kennedy Stewart has declared May 23 as the annual Komagata Maru Day of Remembrance

A crew of WestCoast WILD Adventures employees tackled an onslaught of litter left at the ‘Locks of Love’ fence at Wally Creek on May 2. (Anne-Marie Gosselin photo)
Litter woes consume popular ‘Locks of Love’ fence on B.C.’s Pacific Rim

Popular view spot near Tofino plagued by people hanging masks and other unwanted garbage

Vincent Doumeizel, senior advisor at the United Nations Global Compact on Oceans, as well as director for the Food Programme for the Lloyd’s Register Foundation, pulls up some sugar kelp seaweed off the French coast in April 2020. He was the keynote speaker during the opening ceremony of the inaugural Seaweed Days Festival. (Vincent Doumeizel/Submitted)
Let’s hear it for seaweed: slimy, unsexy and the world’s greatest untapped food source

Experts talks emerging industry’s challenges and potential at Sidney inaugural Seawood Days Festival

Troy Patterson, a Cadboro Bay 15-year-old, got a virtual meeting with B.C.’s environment minister months after he started an online petition calling for construction of the Coastal GasLink pipeline to stop. (Jake Romphf/News Staff)
B.C. teen’s 23,000-name Coastal GasLink petition gets him an audience with the minister

15-year-old Saanich high school student and George Heyman discussed project for about 30 minutes

Most Read