Column: Poll numbers offer early look at federal campaign

Apparently there has been a pretty interesting shift in dynamics as to who people would vote for if the election was held now.

If polls are anything to go by in this marathon election campaign, British Columbians appear to be shunning the Conservative Party and looking seriously at Mulcair’s NDP.

An Insights West online poll was held between August 20 and 24 and targeted 815 adult British Columbians. Apparently there has been a pretty interesting shift in dynamics as to who people would vote for if the election was held now.

According to the poll, 41 per cent of decided voters would vote for the NDP. That’s an increase of six points since a poll conducted in May. The Liberal Party came in second at 24 per cent (one point less than previously) and the Conservatives at 22 per cent (a slide of seven points). The Green Party was in 4th place with 12 per cent (an increase of two points) of the surveyed sample.

True, polls are only a momentary snapshot of the mood of the moment. As parties falling behind are apt to point out, the only poll that counts is the one in the ballot box on voting day. But those who love numbers reach for them strategically.

The NDP’s lead was pretty consistent across genders and three age groups while the Conservatives got their best numbers from the 55 plus age group. Predictably, the Liberals picked up their best numbers from younger voters 35-54 years of age.

Metro Vancouver mirrored the provincial score with NDP clearly ahead at 43 per cent, Liberals with 25 per cent and the Conservatives with 23 per cent. But on Vancouver Island there was a healthy increase in support for the Greens from 20 per cent in May to 32 per cent in August putting them just seven points short of the NDP at 39 per cent.

We’re a lifetime away from polling day and 42 per cent said they could change their minds. Likely that will make things very fluid especially considering the poll found that 75 per cent of the British Columbians surveyed believe it’s time for a change of government, including 43 per cent who voted for the Conservative Party in the last election. In fact, 60 per cent said they would be very upset if the Harper government got another chance to form the government again.

Between August 7 and 10, Ipsos Reid conducted a poll on behalf of Global News to identify the major concerns that will influence how voters will cast their ballots. They polled a sample 2,022 Canadians.

The top priorities among Canadians included managing the economy 76 per cent), addressing the health care system (73 per cent), and creating jobs (also 73 per cent). Addressing the cost of living and keeping communities safe from crime made up the top five concerns of those polled. Ipsos-Reid said on their website that the Conservatives lead on addressing the economy and crime, the NDP leads on fixing the health care system and the rising cost of living while both the Conservatives and the NDP are tied on addressing the need to create jobs.

Insights West reported that the popular guy (or gal) as party leader according to British Columbians puts NDP Thomas Mulcair in the driver’s seat (55 per cent and up 3 points) followed by Green Party leader Elizabeth May (52 per cent, up 8 points). She is closely nudged by Liberal leader Justin Trudeau (51 per cent, up 5 points). Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper had the lowest number at just 28 per cent (a loss of 7 points).

Like many in the rest of the country, British Columbians see jobs and the economy as the most important issues followed by government accountability, health care, the environment, housing, poverty and homelessness.

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Imagination Library Fraser Valley celebrating Christmas in July

Dolly Parton early literacy intiative looking for financial support to help with waitlist

Online submissions now open for virtual Chilliwack Fair

No fee this year to submit entries for food, arts and more in 148th annual Chilliwack Fair

Handgun pointing complaint draws strong RCMP presence at Chilliwack residence Wednesday night

One in custody after brief standoff involving Emergency Response Team and canine unit

Iconic Chilliwack store passes clothing racks on to downtown neighbours

Chilliwack Mission Thriftstore given racks and fixtures as downtown store closes for good

Exercise and cancer to be explored via webinar

UFV’s Dr. Iris Lesser to lead Zoom event for cancer patients and supporters

B.C. sees 25 new COVID-19 cases, community exposure tracked

One death, outbreaks remain in two long-term care facilities

VIDEO: Vancouver Island cat missing 18 months reunited with family

Blue the cat found at Victoria museum 17 kilometres from home

VIDEO: Alberta man rescues baby eagle believed to be drowning in East Kootenay lake

Brett Bacon was boating on a lake in Windermere when he spotted the baby eagle struggling in the water

Police nab three impaired drivers in one night in Maple Ridge

Ridge Meadows RCMP served 80 impaired driving infractions in June

Conservationists raise concerns over state of care for grizzly cubs transferred to B.C. zoo

‘Let them be assessed now before their fate is sealed,’ urges B.C. conservationist Barb Murray

B.C.’s COVID-19 job recovery led by tourism, finance minister says

Okanagan a bright spot for in-province visitor economy

National Kitten Day aka the ‘purrfect’ day to foster a new friend

July 10 marks National Kitten Day, a special day to celebrate all things kittens

Lower Mainland YouTubers claim to be Kelowna display toilet ‘poopers’

RCMP can not speak to legitimacy of video, will be investigating

Haida matriarchs occupy ancient villages as fishing lodges reopen to visitors

‘Daughters of the rivers’ say occupation follows two fishing lodges reopening without Haida consent

Most Read