While 2021 was an all-time record for residential real estate sales in the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB) area, the shortage of supply means it just can’t continue.
The 4,799 sales in CADREB in 2021 represented a 37 per cent increase over the 3,502 sales in the banner real estate year of 2020, and a 72 per cent increase over the 2,789 sales in 2019.
But the B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA) first quarter housing forecast issued this month predicts a drop of 21 per cent to 3,800 sales for 2022 and a further drop to 3,000 sales in 2023.
The BCREA predicts the “significant demand-side momentum” should persist through the first few months of 2022, but the severely strained supply with likely increasing interest rates will calm sales numbers.
“Though the latest wave of COVID-19 adds uncertainty, the provincial unemployment rate continues to trend downwards toward its pre-pandemic level, wages are rising and employment growth has become more balanced across sectors,” according to the report. “Consequently, we are forecasting that provincial home sales will reach 103,250 units this year, a 17 per cent decline from the record set in 2021.”
With high inflation should come an increase in lending rates, which the market should feel by the second half of 2022 and into 2023.
“As a result, home sales next year should further moderate toward a more normal, long-term average level of about 90,000 unit sales provincewide.”
The BCREA also predicts price growth, which has been substantial, to eventually slow to under three per cent.
The average sale price of all homes in the CADREB area – which includes Yarrow to Boston Bar – was $728,146 in 2021, up 26.2 per cent from the average selling price of $577,423 in 2020. The average selling price of all homes in CADREB in 2019 was $523,355.
Do you have something to add to this story, or something else we should report on? Email:
Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.