In this Friday, Dec. 7, 2018 photo, construction continues on large-sized liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers at the Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering facility in Geoje Island, South Korea. More than half of the 35 vessels scheduled for delivery in 2018 were LNG carriers. A similar number of vessels are lined up for completion in 2019. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

In this Friday, Dec. 7, 2018 photo, construction continues on large-sized liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers at the Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering facility in Geoje Island, South Korea. More than half of the 35 vessels scheduled for delivery in 2018 were LNG carriers. A similar number of vessels are lined up for completion in 2019. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

Global LNG terminal survey casts doubt on industry as ‘safe bet’

The failure rate for proposed LNG export terminal projects between 2014 and 2020 is 61 per cent, study says

  • Jul. 7, 2020 12:40 p.m.

By Carl Meyer, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, National Observer

A new report is raising questions about the long-term viability of the liquefied natural gas export industry around the world as the Trudeau government continues to signal support for one such project in B.C.

The natural gas industry is facing multiple headwinds, from a collapse in demand due to COVID-19 disruptions, to competition from renewable energy sources, and protests against fossil fuel expansion such as those in support of Wet’suwet’en against the Coastal GasLink pipeline through B.C.

A global survey of LNG terminals released Monday by the San Francisco-based Global Energy Monitor research network outlines the central risk facing the hundreds of billions of dollars in sunk investments in LNG infrastructure: That some of these structures could become underused, or stranded, long before the end of their useful lives.

“LNG was once considered a safe bet for investors,” said research analyst Greig Aitken, one of the report’s five authors. “Suddenly, the industry is beset with problems.”

The survey points out that Warren Buffett’s investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, yanked a $4-billion investment this March in a key LNG plant in Quebec called Energie Saguenay.

In media reports, the company backing the project, GNL Quebec, cited the “current Canadian political context,” including “instability” from the rail blockades set up in support of Wet’suwet’en, as an explanation.

“The story of Berkshire Hathaway’s change of heart on LNG begins in British Columbia,” reads the survey, titled “Gas Bubble 2020.”

The survey also refers to several other LNG terminal projects in Canada that have either been abandoned or are seeing delays, investment pullouts or no obvious progress in years.

This includes the cancellations of the proposed Aurora LNG plant and the Pacific NorthWest LNG plant near Prince Rupert, and the Malahat LNG project in the Saanich Inlet in 2017, as well as the Grassy Point LNG project on the North Coast of B.C. in 2018.

Another five projects have seen “no progress” in years, while three more are either delayed or have seen a work stoppage, the survey found. Globally, it said some projects that haven’t yet broke ground for construction are now experiencing a “widespread pullback” in enthusiasm.

The Trudeau government has supported the construction of LNG Canada, a $40-billion LNG facility being built in Kitimat, B.C., to be fed by fracked gas delivered by Coastal GasLink. The project, which would liquefy the gas and then load it on ships to be exported to Asia, received $275 million in federal contributions.

Natural Resources Minister Seamus O’Regan has described that money as a “generational investment” that will help “create the future.” In Parliament, O’Regan said the project would create “hundreds of millions of dollars in construction contracts for Indigenous businesses,” while “helping to reduce coal plant emissions in Asian markets.”

In March, National Observer reported that this claim — that shipping the product to China to displace coal-fired electricity generation there would reduce carbon pollution by “60 to 90 million tonnes annually” — stemmed from a “theoretical” calculation made by an adviser hired by LNG Canada, and that didn’t take real-world factors into account.

A report released last month by sustainable development consulting firm Horizon Advisors argued that a Canadian Crown corporation’s support for the Coastal GasLink pipeline was undermining the country’s own climate goals of cutting carbon pollution 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and reaching “net-zero” pollution by 2050.

A spokesperson for LNG Canada said its joint venture participants “took a long-term view when they made the decision to proceed with LNG Canada understanding very well long-term LNG demand growth to support decarbonization from coal fired electricity, industrial and residential heating and to provide baseload power for renewable power.”

The commitment to the project by the joint venture participants, which are British-Dutch firm Shell, Malaysia’s Petronas, Japan’s Mitsubishi, PetroChina and the Korea Gas Corporation, “has not wavered” said the spokesperson.

National Observer asked O’Regan’s office whether the survey’s results changed the minister’s stance on the industry in Canada. The office could not offer a response before publication.

Over the last year, the amount of LNG terminal capacity under construction around the world jumped from $82 billion US to $196 billion US, according to the survey. This is due to an anticipated surge in demand for natural gas from places like China, Japan, Europe and Southeast Asia.

But the economic atmosphere that led to these massive investments is running up against “climate and economic reality,” the survey states. “Even before the twin shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and global gas price collapse, LNG projects were facing an increasingly difficult economic environment,” it said.

Gas markets were becoming oversupplied, prices were falling, and renewables, bolstered by better battery technology, were becoming more competitive. With the added drop in demand and worksite restrictions from COVID-19 this year, not to mention public opposition, some companies have reconsidered investment decisions.

Worldwide, the failure rate for proposed LNG export terminal projects between 2014 and 2020 is 61 per cent, the survey calculated.

Last month LNG Canada and other energy firms launched the Canadian LNG Alliance, to “reflect the critical role LNG has to play in Canada’s COVID-19 economic recovery,” as well as “economic reconciliation” with Indigenous peoples and Canada’s “clean energy transition.”

The group argued that LNG projects in British Columbia would produce “among the world’s lowest-emissions intensity LNG” as they would be partly powered by hydro-electric power.

But the survey suggests that the reputation of LNG as an “environmentally benign” fuel that is less dirty than coal has been debunked by scientific studies highlighting the serious impact of methane on global warming.

Methane, a greenhouse gas that is the main component of natural gas, is 86 times as powerful as carbon dioxide in trapping heat in the atmosphere over a 20-year period. Scientific studies have connected a rise in global methane levels with the fracking boom, and say this rise in atmospheric methane is undercutting efforts to hold the global temperature rise to 2C above pre-industrial levels.

A 2017 peer-reviewed study in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics found that methane leaks from B.C.’s oil and gas industry were at least two and a half times higher than provincial estimates.

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Want to support local journalism? Make a donation here.

LNG

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Chris Squires of The Wack Window Cleaning Company has created the #100housechallenge where he’ll be cleaning the exterior windows of 100 homes for free when an interior window cleaning service is purchased and a food item is donated to Wilma’s Transition Society. (Jenna Hauck/ Chilliwack Progress)
Chilliwack window cleaner ready to donate to Wilma’s through #100housechallenge campaign

Chris Squires enjoys providing service, wants to express it via donations, giving back to community

A cyclist was struck at the intersection of Prest and Bailey roads in Chilliwack on Saturday, March 6, 2021. (Google Maps)
UPDATE: Cyclist struck by SUV in Chilliwack

Incident happened at Prest and Bailey roads around 2:45 p.m. Saturday

Donald Alan Sweet was once an all star CFL kicker who played for the Montreal Alouettes and Montreal Concordes over a 13-year career. Photo courtesy of Mission RCMP.
Retired Mission teacher and star CFL kicker charged for assault, sexual crimes against former students

Donald Alan Sweet taught in school district for 10 years, investigators seeking further witnesses

B.C. RCMP Lower Mainland District officer, Asst. Commissioner Stephen Thatcher presents RCMP blankets to (from left) Chief James Hobart, Chief Maureen Chapman, Chief Derek Epp and Chief Mark Point. (RCMP)
Historic agreement between Fraser Valley FN communities, RCMP to expand Indigenous role in policing

Community Safety Agreement builds relationship of ‘trust, communication and prevention,’ says Chief

Canadian Reformed Church in Chilliwack. (GoogleMaps)
OPINION: Churches that defy the law and public health orders are in the extreme minority

The nature of news coverage means that aberrations from the norm are what make the headlines

The James C Richardson Pipe Band marches in a Remembrance Day parade on Nov. 11, 2019 in Chilliwack. Wednesday, March 10 is International Bagpipe Day. (Jenna Hauck/ Chilliwack Progress file)
Unofficial holidays: Here’s what people are celebrating for the week of March 7 to 13

International Bagpipe Day, Wash Your Nose Day and Kidney Day are all coming up this week

Victoria man Brett Andersen is asking for people’s help to secure him one of eight free tickets to the moon. (Screenshot/@brettandersen Instagram)
Victoria man wants your help securing a free ticket to the moon

Japanese billionaire offering eight people a trip to the moon

The Conservation Officers Service is warning aquarium users after invasive and potentially destructive mussels were found in moss balls from a pet store. (BC Conservation Officers Service/Facebook)
Aquarium users in B.C. warned after invasive mussels found at pet store

Conservation officers were told the mussels were found in a moss ball from a Terrace pet store.

Cannabis bought in British Columbia (Ashley Wadhwani/Black Press Media)
Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

Hockey hall-of-fame legend Wayne Gretzky, right, watches the casket of his father, Walter Gretzky, as it is carried from the church during a funeral service in Brantford, Ont., Saturday, March 6, 2021. HE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
Walter Gretzky remembered as a man with a ‘heart of gold’ at funeral

The famous hockey father died Thursday at age 82 after battling Parkinson’s disease

The family of injured Willoughby resident Ronald Gerald Jesso is hoping someone saw something that will help solve the mystery of how he came to be so badly hurt on the morning of Feb. 22. Jesso is still in hospital. (Jesso family/Special to Langley Advance Times)
An appeal to help solve the mystery of an injured Langley man

Family of Ronald Gerald Jesso asks witnesses to come forward

During a press event on March 6, Const. Alex Berube, media relations officer for the West Shore RCMP, addressed a deadly shooting that occurred in Metchosin the night before. (Devon Bidal/News Staff)
VIDEO: One man shot dead on Vancouver Island in ‘targeted incident’

Highway 14 reopens following multi-hour closure for investigation

Personal protective equipment is seen in the COVID-19 intensive care unit at St. Paul’s hospital in downtown Vancouver. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
$16.9 million invested to improve worker safety, strengthen B.C.’s food supply chain

Money to be used for social distancing, personal protective equipment, cleaning, and air circulation

Most Read