BCREA 2020 Second Quarter Housing Forecast.

BCREA 2020 Second Quarter Housing Forecast.

Chilliwack real estate sales forecast to drop 16% this year, jump 40% in 2021

Numbers are part of BCREA 2020 second quarter housing forecast

The B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA) predicts that Chilliwack and area real estate sales will drop 16 per cent overall for 2020 but rebound by 40 per cent in 2021.

The numbers are part of the BCREA’s 2020 second quarter housing forecast released on June 10.

After huge selling years in 2016 and 2017, the entire Lower Mainland was hit hard by federal and provincial policies in 2018 and 2019, according to the BCREA, a situation the region was expected to rebound from in 2020.

Then COVID-19 hit.

“As households and the real estate sector adhered to social distancing through the early stages of the pandemic, home sales across the Lower Mainland were down more than 40 per cent compared to the same time last year,” according to the BCREA’s forecast.

The Lower Mainland is made up of three real estate boards of very different sizes. The Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board (GVREB) is by far the largest, followed by the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB), which represents home sales from White Rock to Abbotsford. The Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB) includes Chilliwack, Cultus Lake, Agassiz, Harrison Hot Springs, Hope, Boston Bar and the rural areas in between, and represents about 20 per cent of the number of sales of the FVREB.

In 2019, the CADREB sales numbers were at 2,809, down 0.7 per cent from a year prior. The BCREA forecasts that to drop 16.3 per cent to 2,350 for 2020, but then jump back up by 40.4 per cent to 3,300 in 2021.

This compares to a forecast drop of 23 per cent in the FVREB area for 2020 then jump 47.8 per cent in 2020, and in GVREB drop 20.2 per cent this year followed by a 57.1 per cent increase in 2021.

The average home sale price in the CADREB area in 2019 was $522,776 is expected to rise by one per cent to $528,000 in 2020 and a further 3.2 per cent in 2021 to $545,000.

Last month, home sales in CADREB were down 38 per cent year over year although the average selling price was up to $551,719.

• READ MORE: Chilliwack and district home sales down 38 per cent in May

“The bright outlook for 2020 home sales has been upended by the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting recession,” BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said in a press release. “However, as the economy ‘re-opens’ and measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 are gradually eased, we expect home sales will start to rebound, aided by record-low mortgage rates and pent-up demand.”

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In June 2020, the B.C. Real Estate Association forecast Chilliwack real estate sales to drop 16 per cent overall for 2020 then increase 40 per cent in 2021. (Paul Henderson/ Progress file)

In June 2020, the B.C. Real Estate Association forecast Chilliwack real estate sales to drop 16 per cent overall for 2020 then increase 40 per cent in 2021. (Paul Henderson/ Progress file)

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