The ongoing hot sales numbers in the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB) area are expected to decline for 2018 and into 2019.
That’s according to the B.C. Real Estate Association’s (BCREA) second quarter housing forecast, which also predicts prices will continue to rise.
But a forecast is a bit of a crystal ball, and this forecast on prices is dramatically different from what the BCREA put out just three months ago.
The association says prices are expected to continue to climb surpassing $550,000 for an average home of all types by 2019 in the area.
The average sale price of a home in 2017 was $464,897, that’s up 16.8 per cent over 2016, and the BCREA forecasts that to rise 14.4 per cent to $531,700 for 2018 and a further four per cent to $552,800 for 2019.
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Those numbers are considerably higher than the BCREA’s own forecast just three months ago. In early March, the association said the average CADREB sale price for 2018 would be $498,000 and $520,000 for 2019.
And if the trend in recent months continue, the BCREA may have to up its forecast once again since the average sale price in April 2018 at $533,020 was already higher than its prediction for the entire year.
Breaking down the BCREA’s forecast for CADREB, the average sale price of a single family home was $586,421 in 2017, up 19.1 per cent over 2016. The forecast is for that price point to hit $657,900 in 2018 and $683,000 in 2019.
For townhouses, the average price last year was $397,628 up 26.3 per cent over 2016, a number forecast to rise to $458,000 for 2018 and $474,000 for 2019.
The average apartment went for $214,237 in 2017 up 18.1 per cent over 2016. That’s forecast to rise to $251,300 in 2018 and $264,000 for 2019.
B.C.-wide, in 2017 the average price of a home was $709,577. That’s forecast to go up to $745,600 for 2018 and $775,900 for 2019.
On the sales side, CADREB saw 3,983 sales in 2017, a 7.5 per cent decline over the huge sales numbers in 2016. That’s predicted to decline a further 3.3 per cent in 2018 and 3.4 per cent in 2019, lower drops than forecast in the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board and the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
As for housing starts, Chilliwack had a huge year in 2017, something the BCREA forecast to slow down for 2018 and 2019.
There were 1,033 housing starts in 2017, 644 single-family and 389 multiples. The forecast is for that to drop to 985 for 2018 and 880 in 2019.
And the trend in Chilliwack is finally, if slowly, to move away from single family to multiples. BCREA forecasts a 16.9 decline in single family home starts for 2018 and a 15.7 increase in townhouses and apartments.
The prediction is for that to stay flat for single family homes in 2019, with yet a further 19.6 decline in single detached for 2019.