The Chilliwack real estate market is expected to finish 2021 with a record-setting 4,800 home sales, which would represent a 37.3 per cent increase over last year.
The just-released fourth quarter forecast from the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) is even rosier than the third quarter forecast was. In August the BCREA projected 4,600 home sales, a 31.6 per cent increase over 2020.
“After a frenzied start to the year, activity in BC housing markets has settled back to a level that is broadly in-line with long-run trends,” said BCREA Chief Economist, Brendon Ogmundson. “The strength of the first half of this year has sales on track to easily break the previous record for annual sales.”
The BCREA attributes the growth to record-low housing inventory, which, combined with high demand has seen homes flying off the market. The average price of a Chilliwack home has risen by 21.3 per cent over 2020, outpacing the Fraser Valley area (20.5 per cent) and nearly doubling what’s happening in Greater Vancouver (10.8 per cent).
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With nine months down and three to go, the forecasted average price of a home in Chilliwack in 2021 — including single-detached, apartments and townhouses — is likely to hit $700,100.
It was $577,279 in 2020.
The forecasted average price of a single-detached is $888,000, up from $695,322 in 2020.
The forecasted average price of an apartment is $346,400, up from $280,969 in 2020, and the forecasted average price of a townhouse is $584,870, up from $462,837 in 2020.
The BCREA does expect things to cool off in 2022, predicting a more historically-normal 3,800 home sales.
Factoring into that is a surge in housing starts. Chilliwack is estimated to see 1,350 single housing starts by the end of 2021, a 100.3 per cent increase over the 674 from 2020. The forecast for 2022 is 1,300 housing starts.
Prices are expected to keep rising though. By the end of 2022, the BCREA believes the average value of a single-family home in Chilliwack will hit $920,000.
“Given strong demand and very low active listings, particularly in smaller markets around B.C., the average home price in BC is projected to rise 17 per cent in 2021,” Ogmundson noted. “Prices are forecast to rise about three per cent in 2022 as the composition of home sales changes due to normalizing demand for single-family homes and a recovery in active listings helps the market balance out.”