Graph of composite residential real estate price movements in Greater Vancouver since 2005

Graph of composite residential real estate price movements in Greater Vancouver since 2005

Further home price dips forecast in 2013 for Lower Mainland

High-end Vancouver sales skew averages, which don't reflect typical prices

Greater Vancouver’s average home prices should drop nearly two per cent next year after falling 5.9 per cent in 2012, according to a new housing forecast from the B.C. Real Estate Association.

The weakness in the real estate market is projected to be softest in single detached houses next year, with a 2.7 per cent drop to $1.09 million in the average price paid in Greater Vancouver in 2013.

Attached homes are projected to decline 0.7 per cent in average price to $555,000, while condos would gain 0.3 per cent to $443,000.

The BCREA report cautions those average prices were skewed up in 2011 by a spate of high-end home sales in the Vancouver area.

More typical homes in the region didn’t run up as fast as the average, nor have they slipped as much since the peak, it said, adding most home prices should remain “essentially flat” through 2013.

Sales are expected to rebound by almost 14 per cent after falling by an estimated 20 per cent in 2012.

Demand from buyers has ebbed since the federal government imposed tighter mortgage qualification rules.

Those measures, aimed to curb rising levels of consumer debt, were equivalent to a one per cent jump in mortgage rates for first-time buyers, according to economists at the BCREA.

“Market fundamentals suggest stronger sales activity ahead,” the BCREA report says in its Greater Vancouver outlook.

“Full-time employment has been growing at a three to four per cent clip for several months, mortgage interest rates remain at or near historic lows and the population base continues to expand.”

It says that should mean a return to “more balanced” real estate market conditions in Metro Vancouver as the current buyer’s market moderates.

Multi-family buildings are expected to account for 80 per cent of new units built this year, while single-family house starts are forecast to drop below 8,000 units for the first time since 2009.

The province’s economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2.3 per cent next year and the unemployment rate is to slip below seven per cent.

In the Fraser Valley real estate zone, which includes Surrey, White Rock and North Delta, the forecast calls for a 0.3 per cent drop in detached house prices to an average $600,000 in 2013, a 0.7 per cent drop in attached homes to $333,500 and a 1.4 per cent gain in apartments to $225,000.

It estimates overall average residential prices in the Fraser Valley will have fallen 3.1 per cent by the end of this year.

The report cautions that fluctuation mainly reflects changes in the mix of homes selling and that typical homes, tracked through benchmark prices, have shown “only modest change” since the end of 2009.

Sales are expected to rise 5.7 per cent next year after a more than 10 per cent drop in 2012.

Just Posted

Raeya Evie Duncan was the 100th baby born at Chilliwack General Hospital for the month of May. She is seen here with her parents Alysha Williams and Andrew Duncan on June 12, 2021. (Jenna Hauck/ Chilliwack Progress)
Baby boom in Chilliwack as record number of infants born at CGH in May

‘COVID babies are coming out,’ says dad of 100th baby born at Chilliwack General Hospital last month

Syringes prepared with Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine at a vaccination site in Long Beach, Calif., Friday, March 5, 2021. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Walk-ins welcome at upcoming G.W. Secondary vaccine clinic

Second consecutive Saturday Fraser Health has scheduled a same-day clinic in a Chilliwack school

Migrating sockeye in the Fraser River August 7, 2007. (Fisheries and Oceans Canada)
First Nations, commercial, and recreational harvesters join forces to save Fraser River fish

‘We have to work together to rebuild these stocks while there is still time,’ says delegate

Vancouver courthouse. (Photo: Tom Zytaruk)
Man loses bid to appeal conviction for 1999 rape at Abbotsford music festival

James Redden, 53, formerly of Nanaimo, was found guilty in 2019 following six-day trial

Dozens of demonstrators gathered in March at the Hope Station House, showing support for preserving the 1916 building. (Photo/Christian Ward)
New reports breathe life into efforts to save the Hope Station House

The documents were presented to District of Hope Council at a meeting June 14

People watch a car burn during a riot following game 7 of the NHL Stanley Cup final in downtown Vancouver, B.C., in this June 15, 2011 photo. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Geoff Howe
10 years ago: Where were you during the 2011 Vancouver Stanley Cup Riots?

Smashed-in storefronts, looting, garbage can fires and overturned cars some of the damage remembered today

(Black Press Media file)
Dirty money: Canadian currency the most germ-filled in the world, survey suggests

Canadian plastic currency was found to contain 209 bacterial cultures

(pixabay file shot)
B.C. ombudsperson labels youth confinement in jail ‘unsafe,’ calls for changes

Review states a maximum of 22 hours for youth, aged 12 from to 17, to be placed in solitary

Cannabis bought in British Columbia (Ashley Wadhwani/Black Press Media)
Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

Eleonore Alamillo-Laberge, 6, reads a book in Ottawa on Monday, June 12, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
Parents will need to fight ‘COVID learning slump’ over summer: B.C. literacy experts

Parents who play an active role in educating their children this summer can reverse the slump by nearly 80%, says Janet Mort

The border crossing on Highway 11 in Abbotsford heading south (file)
Western premiers call for clarity, timelines on international travel, reopening rules

Trudeau has called Thursday meeting, premiers say they expect to leave that meeting with a plan

The B.C. government’s vaccine booking website is busy processing second-dose appointments, with more than 76 per cent of adults having received a first dose. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
B.C.’s COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations stable for Tuesday

108 new confirmed cases, 139 in hospital, 39 in intensive care

A worker, at left, tends to a customer at a cosmetics shop amid the COVID-19 pandemic Thursday, May 20, 2021, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
Half of cosmetics sold in Canada, U.S. contain toxic chemicals: study

Researchers found that 56% of foundations and eye products contain high levels of fluorine

Most Read